Insights into the London 2021 global market

2020 was a year like no other, but it is unfair to say that pandemics are not predicted or modelled. Resilience has always been a main stay of all city predictions, but never at this scale and with this level of sustained intensity.

As we continue to face significant changes to the way we live and work, it is time to reflect on the past year, and in turn, make predictions for what the next 12 months will hold for our capital city.

The Covid-19 pandemic has served as a warning. We have all been affected, and it has highlighted injustice and inequity in ways we have always known, but perhaps have not acknowledged previously. Pandemics do that. They reveal the truth of who we are and how we have been living.

London will recover, but that recovery will be uneven. Just as it was post-1920, our version of the Roaring Twenties will be filled with forward-looking, risk taking social, industrial and adaptive change. The difference this time is that we have the data, science and capability to properly benchmark our impact. The pandemic has allowed society to develop a real, sophisticated understanding of what actually drives outcomes.

From that understanding, we firmly believe that the Roaring Twenties will bring an era of positive accountability that we have not previously witnessed. That accountability will span the whole spectrum of what makes the city and it will enhance the role of governance, industry, equity and the economy, all in relation to our impact as humans.

This is great news for firms like Buro Happold.

Our five predictions for 2021 encompass the key megatrends which are driving the pace of change. These trends are the economy, climate, mobility, energy, and the main enabler, technology.

1. The real estate economy will reset cautiously and slowly, but the race for development will accelerate.

The pandemic has shown how agile some sectors of the economy can be. The reset of supply chains, the concept of working from home and the renewed understanding of space needs have shifted our consumer economy to an online platform with huge consequences for everyone.

Knowing what to invest in and how to measure that investment performance has changed markedly. Viability is now far more complex, and the most resilient new schemes will be at scale, carbon neutral, multiple use, out of town and will contain a strong component of short-term functions.

At the same time, they must serve the communities they exist in. The new high street model will emerge in 2021, and we expect investment models to change too. What this means for large project schemes like Heathrow Airport’s third runway is far from clear.

2. In climate: we expect an era of accountability to emerge in London.

It is no longer acceptable to talk about targets. By the end of 2021, we expect to see all major actions in the built environment being measured, not against their commitment to net zero by 2030, but by their attainment towards those goals in a fast changing regulatory environment.

The most progressive firms are benchmarking these targets using their data and developing new methodologies for progress. This is happening at city, borough and district level. This is driving broader, mixed-use approaches to construction which starts to address the business case challenges that so many developers face around inclusive, community centred design.

We are seeing, and engaging in, many of these schemes and it is refreshing to see change. By the end of 2021, we expect people to be reporting around real attainment.

3. In mobility: the push towards active travel will take hold.

We have seen a huge shift away from public transport and a shift in overall volumes of traffic. Streets are now being reclaimed at community level. There is now a real split between a major increase in road traffic versus a drive to capture the huge wellbeing benefits from cleaner air and reclaimed urban space.

London has turned against the car and towards active travel. More human centred neighbourhoods have proven controversial when installed with a split between those pro and against. However, once installed and embedded into the community, they are hugely popular with residents. It has been the same for one-lane segregated cycleways. It is London vs the car. Active travel has huge co-benefits for our health (including Covid-19) and the climate. EVs do not solve congestion and still emit huge amounts of particulate. The construction of new roads is out. Public transport and active travel are the answer.

ultra low emissions zone research for planning consultants in London

4. For energy: by the end of 2021 we expect an industry to emerge, around building and community retrofit.

The Climate Change Committee’s message to the UK government is clear; the 2020s must be the decisive decade of progress and action on climate change. By the early 2030s, every new car, van and replacement boiler must be net zero carbon, and by 2035, all UK electricity production will be zero carbon.

For London, this means that modern low-carbon industries will grow, producing hydrogen, capturing carbon, creating new woodlands, renovating and decarbonising the UK’s 28 million homes.

This will provide hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout London, at city, borough and street scale. A huge building retrofit programme will continue to emerge, putting pressure on our ageing electrical network. By the end of 2021, we expect this low-carbon industry to emerge, both at community and district level. It is likely that any future planning submission which does not address net zero carbon is likely to fail.

5. The digital revolution which has happened in 2020 will transform the way we measure outcomes to climate, wellbeing and accountability in 2021.

We expect the UK government to front load investment in digital infrastructure this year as a catalyst for development. Regeneration schemes will start to include data-centres and the related community assets which sit alongside these.

More than ever before, consumers’ engagement will be based on their needs, now that the majority of the community have access to online. Data has been “owned” by a few large corporations for too long. A fair deal for community data will emerge in 2021, and large redevelopment schemes will use that data to prototype and test ideas with a much higher level of sophistication.

This unlocks the ability to actually measure social benefit outcomes and to empower consultation at all levels. Moreover, access to information, the ability to collaborate, and the ability to create a real digital economy has been given a massive boost. A more open, democratic and transparent view of outcomes is now an expectation.

The advances in digital capability are rapidly creating transparency. We all benefit from that, and the design of systems that are able to respond to this is something that connects all of our predictions in 2021.

Tying all of these themes together is equity. The pandemic has highlighted the massive inequality that exists in every aspect of our 5 key themes for 2021.

Inclusion: active anti-racism awareness and action, equality of access to opportunity, and equality of wellbeing are all essential components of a thriving city. This equity has to exist in every dimension and in every part of the human city.

Understanding each other’s experiences, listening, learning and moving forward together is more possible than ever. We have all weathered the same storm, albeit, in very different boats, in this extraordinary year.

2021 will be laden with opportunity. We need to ensure that it is evenly distributed, and that the climate and the planet are also seen as equal stakeholders in that distribution. We are looking forward to playing our part in providing the support, expertise and enquiry to ensure that this balance is achieved.